Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the biggest players in the prediction market, were some of the biggest winners overnight as Thomas Massie lost his election primary.
Massie, who Trump regarded as the “worst Republican in the House of Representatives ever, lost handily to Ed Gallrein, whom he endorsed a few months ago.
He led in polling data for months before his odds of losing in his primary flipped during the weekend after Senator Bob Cassidy lost his in the deep red state of Kentucky.
Polymarket’s and Kalshi’s odds of a Massie win dipped below 45% in the final days. This mirrored what some other polls from the state showed.
As such, there is a likelihood that the prediction platforms will become more popular in the future because of their high-profile victories, including Trump’s victory against Kamala Harris.
President Trump is the other big winner in this as he had spent months blasting him. He campaigned for his opponent for months, and even attended a rally in the state. In the past few days, he sent several Truth Social posts blasting him.
The victory comes at a time when Trump’s approval rating has crashed. A recent poll by the New York Times and Sienna showed that his approval rating plunged to 37%. Other pollsters have shown that his approval rating has dived as US inflation surges. A recent report showed that the headline CPI jumped to 3.8% in April this year.
The election result is also a big blow to popular people in the right-wing media, like Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, Candace Owens, and Megyn Kelly who spent months boosting Massie. It confirmed the view that Trump was still popular among the core GOP supporters.
At the same time, it is a big victory for donors like Miriam Adelson and Paul Singer, who spent millions of dollars in the election. It became the most expensive House primary ever in the United States, with most of the funds coming from out-of-state donors.
Thomas Massie made enemies within the Republican establishment for his principled voting record. While he has a good record of voting for conservative causes, he has constantly voted against some key spending priorities.
For example, he has never voted for foreign wars and US donations to Isreal and other countries. He was the only Republican to vote against Trump’s Big Beautiful bill last year.
