THE BALANCE OF LEVERAGE
Across the summit agenda, analysts said leverage is likely to be fragmented rather than clearly tilted towards either side, with advantages shifting across Iran, Taiwan and technology-security issues.
On Iran, Beijing may have the stronger hand because Trump has more need for a visible outcome, said RSIS’ Li.
After weeks of conflict and pressure on global energy markets, any sign that Washington can draw Beijing into crisis management would allow Trump to present the summit as evidence of strength and diplomatic control, he added.
Beijing’s main priority, by contrast, is to prevent the Iran conflict from becoming a destabilising complication, Li asserted.
“The asymmetry of need favours the side that can afford to care less,” Li added.
On Taiwan, however, experts said the dynamics are more complex.
Li said Beijing has already benefited from what he described as Washington’s caution on Taiwan ahead of the summit, citing in particular the reported delay of a major US arms sale package to the island.
The New York Times reported in late February that the Trump administration had delayed a multibillion-dollar arms package for Taiwan to avoid complicating the Beijing summit, citing unidentified US officials.
The package had stalled at the State Department after senior lawmakers approved the plan in January, the report said.
There has been no formal US announcement confirming such a delay, though Taiwan’s Defence Minister Wellington Koo said in March that Taipei had received a letter of guarantee from Washington and that the next arms package remained on track.
Li said Congress and the broader US policy establishment remain key constraints on how far Trump can shift US policy on Taiwan.
That, in turn, gives Trump a bargaining position of his own, allowing him to present himself to Beijing as someone able to shape the tone and timing of US pressure on Taiwan, while warning that congressional and institutional momentum behind tougher measures would be harder to contain if China escalates, he added.
