WA grain farmers look set to harvest a crop bigger than 20 million tonnes for the fourth time in five years, after breaking through what many thought was an unachievable barrier for the first time in 2021.
The most recent forecast by the Grain Industry Association of WA revealed rainfall and mild conditions in August and September had “pushed the grain yield potential” of crops well above last month’s forecast.
The State is now on track to harvest its third-biggest crop on record, at 23.68 million tonnes, worth between $8-10 billion.
If realised, it would be the biggest crop since the record 26Mt harvested in 2022, and up on last year’s 22Mt harvest.
But farmers were not out of the woods just yet, with many crops in the central and northern grain growing areas tracking quite behind in terms of growing — a “major concern” for farmers as temperatures start to rise.
Crop report author Michael Lamond, an agronomist at York, said the total could climb if farmers managed to avoid significant damage from heat or frost during the next month.
“Irrespective of what happens from now on there will certainly be more than 20 million tonnes of grain grown in WA again this year,” he said.
“While the grain is not in the bin yet, we are quickly running out of things that could go wrong.
“The next four weeks will determine the difference between an excellent year and a record year, with the outcome hinging on whether crops can avoid heat shock and maintain moisture to fill grain.”
Barley looks set to be the best-performing crop across WA, with the 1.9 million hectares planted between Geraldton and Esperance just a smidge behind the 2019 record of 1.95Mt and expected to yield well.
Mr Lamond said a soft spring had given canola crops a boost, with a long flowering period meaning some crops were expected to yield “very well”. But farmers were still feeling nervous about what impact a run of hot weather could do.
“The lateness of much of the (canola) crops away from the southern regions is a risk if the heat turns up over the next few weeks,” he said.
“Many paddocks are still in the final throws of flowering and mid grain fill, which is historically very late.”
WA’s wheat harvest is expected to be above the five-year average, with a big planting of 4.5 million hectares and “excellent biomass” across the board, while oat plantings have also jumped year-on-year.
Meanwhile, the State’s pulse industry could also be in for a boost with pulse crops expected to yield well, while lupin crops have also been yielding well.
The GIWA report revealed it would be a good harvest for farmers across most regions, although the record-breaking potential of crops in the Albany area had been tempered after heavy rainfall and waterlogging.
Farmers in the Lakes District, near Newdegate, have also been plagued by a series of frost events but Mr Lamond the full impact would not be known for a number of weeks.
“The district has had a relatively frost-free run in recent years and as it is a known “frosty region,” growers are not particularly perturbed as frost is just a part of life,” he said.
“Even so, grain yields will be close to average or above average for those less impacted.”
Farmers in the Geraldton Port Zone are traditionally the first to start harvest between September 15 and 20, but the State’s main grain handler CBH Group is yet to receive any deliveries.
