Crude production from Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale is on course to reach more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the decade, according to Rystad Energy, as the country launches its largest bid round in ten years to accelerate development of the basin.
The forecast underscores Vaca Muerta’s emergence as the most important non-US shale play, offering global energy companies a rare opportunity to secure new supply at a time when the Middle East conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in traditional oil corridors.
Argentina’s largest auction since 2016
Provincial company Gas y Petróleo del Neuquén (GyP) has opened 15 new exploration blocks across the shale formation, more than double the six blocks offered in the last provincial auction.
The acreage spans the condensate-rich northwest, oil-heavy northeast and frontier southern fringe, giving bidders exposure to the full geological diversity of the play.
“Argentina is offering international companies their best organic entry point into Vaca Muerta in a decade,” Jai Singh, Head of US Oil & Gas Research at Rystad Energy said in the update.
The basin is maturing fast, infrastructure is being built at pace, and the bid terms are designed to attract operators who can bring North American shale expertise to bear. For anyone who missed the first wave, this is the knock on the door they have been waiting for.
Competitive edge and global context
Vaca Muerta is already outperforming US shale plays such as the Permian, Bakken, and Eagle Ford on well productivity measures, Rystad Energy said in the update.
Breakeven prices across the most prospective blocks range between $32 and $49 per barrel, competitive with established global shale regions, data from the Norway-based energy intelligence company showed.
Infrastructure development has been quietly advancing, with pipelines and export terminals now in place to connect Neuquén’s geology to international markets.
“Vaca Muerta’s well productivity already rivals the best of the US Permian Basin on a normalized basis, and Argentina has spent the last several years quietly building the pipelines and export terminals needed to turn that geology into global supply. This bid round is the moment that the world’s most important non-US shale play formally invites the world in,” Singh added.
The timing is significant, with the Strait of Hormuz largely closed since February, importing nations are reassessing supply chains. Argentina’s auction offers a forward-looking solution, positioning Vaca Muerta as a reliable alternative source of barrels.
International and domestic interest
The bid round is expected to attract both international majors and local operators.
US shale pioneer Continental Resources recently acquired a 90% stake in the Los Toldos II Oeste block and farmed into Pan American Energy assets, signaling rising foreign appetite.
Domestic companies also have strong incentives, with strategic value in expanding acreage adjacent to existing holdings and leveraging regional expertise, Rystad said.
Bidders will compete through a mix of carried working interest for GyP, royalties above the 15% minimum, work program commitments, and an access bonus, with a minimum threshold of $500,000 per block, according to the update.
Challenges and outlook
Operational and geological challenges remain. Some blocks lie near structurally complex regions, requiring an advanced understanding of local faulting, stress regimes, and landing zone variability.
Beyond subsurface risks, operators will need to establish strong local organizations and supply chains in Neuquén, where relationships and operational experience are increasingly vital, Rystad said.
Still, the outlook is clear. With production on track to exceed 1 million bpd by 2030, Vaca Muerta is poised to become a cornerstone of global supply, the company added.
For international operators, Argentina’s auction represents not just another licensing round, but a strategic opportunity to secure a foothold in the only major shale play outside North America with proven productivity and growing export capacity.
