According to data from Vizion, a real-time AI container tracking platform, US import bookings on massive container ships dropped by 64 per cent in March and April as Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs kicked off.
German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd reported a 30 per cent cancellation rate from customers on shipments from China to the US, according to a company spokesperson who cited a “massive increase” in demand for consignments from Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam.
IMPACT IN THE YEAR AHEAD
Despite the escalating tit-for-tat, analysts said neither Beijing nor Washington appeared ready for full consumer-level decoupling.
If China really wanted to accelerate the break, it could spark consumer nationalism, Wang said, as it had done in past disputes with Japan and South Korea. “But the Chinese government so far has refrained from doing that.”
According to trade data, the United States bought US$439 billion worth of goods from China in 2024 – more than three times the US$143.5 billion it sold in return.
While she acknowledged that inflation may be more visible in the US, she argued that the broader risk lies with China.
“For the US, most of the problem is in the potential recession, but it’s not caused by tariffs,” she said.
“Inflation might be caused by tariffs, but it doesn’t seem that the American people are as worried about inflation as they worry about recession. So I think the risk to China is bigger.”
Others added that global uncertainty would continue in the months ahead.
It’s a “waiting game”, Song said. “We’re in a test of endurance right now – which side will feel the pain first and which side has to lower its head and come to the table.”
Experts previously told CNA that many Chinese factories were already seeing supply outpace demand and also noted that not all goods intended for US markets would appeal to Chinese buyers.
China would not be immune to pressure, Wang said.
“Although China can produce everything, the indirect impact from overflooding its massive consumer market would be pretty big.”
Sky-high tariffs are unsustainable, experts said, but even if rates are eventually scaled back, relations between the world’s two biggest economies have already changed.
“Maybe we will see a kind of gradual pivot away from the previous, highly interconnected nature of the USA and China, given the broader geopolitical risk involved,” Song said.
But for consumers on the ground like Yu, the shift from global to domestic has already taken hold.
“Times have long changed,” she said. “It hasn’t disrupted our lives. If anything, it bolsters our support (for Chinese brands).”
