Labor is on track for victory on Saturday but is unlikely to get the majority government Anthony Albanese is still aiming for.
The final Newspoll ahead of polling day showed Labor with 52.5 per cent of the two-party preferred to the Coalition’s 47.5 per cent. Labor won the May 2022 election with a single-seat majority on a two-party preferred vote of 52.1 per cent.
Labor’s primary was at 33 per cent — just above what the party achieved in the 2022 poll — while the Coalition’s was lower than the last election on 34 per cent.
If repeated at Saturday’s poll, it would represent a 1.7 point decline from the 35.7 per cent recorded in May 2022 and a record low for the Coalition.
The poll also showed the combined primary vote of the major parties has also fallen to a new low of 67 per cent, compared to 68.3 per cent at the last election.
Both Mr Albanese and Peter Dutton suffered declines in personal support in the final week of the campaign. The Opposition Leader’s approval rating slid a further three points to 32 per cent, with a negative rating of minus 28.
Feel like giving the politicians a rating this Federal election?
Our Pollie Rater lets you do just that.
Rate the politicians
The popularity of Mr Albanese, meanwhile, fell by one point to a record a net negative approval rating of minus 10.
However, Mr Albanese still leads Mr Dutton 51-35 per cent as the preferred prime minister.
Voters were also asked whether they believed they would be better off over the next three years under a Labor or Coalition government.
Labor were the firm favourites, leading the Coalition 57 per cent to 43 per cent and backed by women voters who were significantly more inclined to support the proposition than men.
It comes after a Freshwater poll published in Friday’s Australian Financial Review showed the same primary vote for Labor and 37 per cent for the Liberals, resulting in a 51.5-49.5 two-party preferred with Labor still ahead.
Mr Albanese’s language has changed during this final campaigning blitz to say he is about “maximising” Labor’s position, instead of his earlier declarations that he was all about winning a majority.
“I don’t want to lose any seats, obviously. We’re on 78 at the moment. That’s my objective,” he said.
But he continued to rule out doing any deals with Greens or other crossbenchers in exchange for their backing in a hung Parliament, as did Mr Dutton.
Labor is privately confident it can hold on to the nine seats it won in WA in 2022, although the Liberals still insist Pearce is in their sights.
The three-cornered contest in Bullwinkel is expected by both sides to come down to a narrow race between Labor and the Liberals, with conservative Matt Moran tipped the probable victor.
And in Curtin where independent Kate Chaney is fighting off Liberal challenge Tom White, the contest has tightened considerably over the past week, making few political insiders confident in any outcome.
