FROM PARTNER TO RIVAL?
America’s reservations are not just geopolitical. “We are not going to make the same mistakes with India that we made with China 20 years ago,” US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said on a recent visit to New Delhi, letting it “develop all these markets” and then start “beating” the US in “a lot of commercial things”.
The message is clear: the US now views India less as a strategic partner to be nurtured than as a regional and economic rival to be contained.
India must adapt to this new reality, which demands a fundamental shift in its strategic thinking. India can no longer count on its close relationship with the US to sustain its influence across South Asia and beyond. Instead, it must cultivate regional influence through economic engagement, political sensitivity toward neighboring states, and the delivery of tangible public goods that appeal to smaller countries.
The US should rethink its approach as well. It might want a more diversified regional order, but this cannot come at the expense of its partnership with India, with which it continues to share important interests, from managing China’s rise to preserving stability across the Indo-Pacific. Policies that systematically weaken India’s position in its own neighborhood risk undermining these shared objectives.
The Trump administration seems to hope that the US and India can remain global partners, even as they become regional rivals. But this will be no easy feat, and the outcome will shape not only the future of the bilateral relationship, but also the strategic landscape in South Asia and beyond.
Brahma Chellaney is Professor Emeritus of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy. This piece first appeared on Project Syndicate.
