Sunday marks 100 days into a war that US President Donald Trump said was going to finish “very fast”.
Despite a ceasefire agreed on April 8, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, sporadic fire continues, and talks have repeatedly collapsed.
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In this visual explainer, Al Jazeera tracks the first 100 days of the war, from the number of people killed and displaced, to the shock to the global economy and the prospects for a deal.
At least 7,000 people killed
More people have now been killed in Lebanon than in Iran, the war’s original target.
Preliminary figures show at least 3,593 people confirmed killed in Lebanon, 3,468 in Iran and 29 in Gulf states, with 26 Israelis and 13 US soldiers also killed in Iranian attacks since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran.
Figures may change due to the evolving situation as more information becomes available.
Israel occupies a fifth of Lebanon
Despite a separate ceasefire in Lebanon that took effect on April 17, Israel continues to pound the country’s south.
Israeli attacks have displaced more than one million Lebanese people, with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam describing the invasion as “a scorched-earth policy and collective punishment”, destroying towns and villages, and forcing their inhabitants into exile.
As of June 1, Israeli forces had reached the outskirts of Nabatieh, a city in southern Lebanon. In doing so, they captured Beaufort Castle, marking the deepest advancement into Lebanon in more than 25 years. Israeli forces now occupy nearly a fifth of the country – 2,000 square kilometres (770 square miles).
Israel had claimed its objective in Lebanon was to remove key Hezbollah fighters south of the Litani River close to its border. However, the military is operating far past that line, with forced displacement orders as far as the Zahrani River, which is some 10km (six miles) north of the Litani.
In the first two weeks of the war, more than three million Iranians were also displaced as US-Israeli attacks bombarded key infrastructure and civilian sites in the country.
Strait of Hormuz: From 100 ships daily to 7
Since the beginning of the war, hundreds of ships have been stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which one-fifth of global oil and gas previously flowed.
According to ship-tracking data, about 607 ships have crossed through the strait between February 28 and May 31 – an average of almost seven per day – far below the roughly 100 daily transits before the war.
With the strait closed, global oil stockpiles were drawn down at a record pace, triggering fears of depletion as the conflict extended. Furthermore, the US has imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports since mid-April, further disrupting commercial shipping in the waterway.
With tankers unable to leave the strait, it has meant longer voyage distances, reduced vessel availability on key routes, and higher freight rates.
146 countries have increased petrol prices
Energy markets have been shaken by the war, with oil prices almost doubling over the past three months.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), an intergovernmental organisation that tracks global energy markets, described the disruption as the largest energy shock on record.
Before the war, Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, cost about $70 per barrel. A week into the war, prices crossed $100 for the first time since 2022, eventually peaking at nearly $120 before settling back to about $100, where they remain today.
Central to these oil swings in particular was the social media activity of President Trump, whose posts on Truth Social frequently triggered multibillion-dollar swings in oil futures.
Ordinary people have already been affected by higher prices at the pump. According to an Al Jazeera tally, at least 146 countries have reported increases in petrol prices since late February.
Asian countries, which import some 60 percent of their oil from the Gulf, are facing the highest costs at the petrol station, with countries like Myanmar seeing a petrol price increase of more than 90 percent in the first three months of the conflict.
In Africa, Nigerians are paying more than 50 percent more for their petrol, while in some Latin American countries like Peru, costs of filling up a tank are 40 percent higher than before the war.
Very few countries have been shielded from the impact of the war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
It’s not just petrol prices that are rising, oil and gas are raw materials for thousands of everyday products, from water bottles and food packaging to laundry detergents.
The global food supply is essentially built on natural gas in the form of fertilisers, used to enhance crop yields and ensure that food production can meet demand. As a result, food prices have moved in lockstep with energy prices, affecting every stage of the food supply chain from the fertilisers used in the fields to the trucks that carry food from the fields to supermarket shelves.
While oil majors benefited from higher prices, if they remain elevated, it risks the economy going into a tailspin and potentially into a recession.
“It’s still too early to determine the full impact of the war,” Hadi Kahalzadeh, non-resident fellow at Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera. “We know that it has contracted the global GDP, raised inflation, and raised concerns about slower growth, higher inflation, and the risk of a new economic downturn [as reflected in estimates from the IMF, World Bank, and OECD]. Higher energy, fertiliser, and key metal prices increased industrial and agricultural input costs, negatively affecting growth and inflation. But the complete effects on global supply chains remain unknown.”
Global markets pulled back initially
Global equity markets pulled back sharply initially, with the S&P 500, a benchmark index for the US stock market, dropping 9.1 percent through late March from previous highs as investors factored in a global energy shock and risks of a wider regional war.
As the war has progressed, global equity markets have moved in response to diplomatic signals and even President Trump’s social media signalling, with indices falling and recovering on escalation and ceasefire rumours respectively, which has also led to market manipulation allegations, which have not been proved.
“There have been serious questions about suspicious market movements around major Trump announcements on Iran and the war. US regulators have reportedly looked into some of these trades,” Kahalzadeh told Al Jazeera.
“There are also broader concerns about conflicts of interest, especially around people close to Trump and their financial relationships in the Middle East.”
European indices such as the FTSE 100, Euro Stoxx 600 and the German DAX fared a lot worse, falling hard in early March due to European economies’ reliance on oil, given their energy-intensive industries.
Asian markets, which depend heavily on Gulf oil, were hit hardest of all, with the Nikkei suffering some of its deepest single-day losses at the onset of the war. At the end of April, when Pakistan was mediating ceasefire talks, the Nikkei rose sharply, but by mid-May, when both countries exchanged fire, it had slumped.
Global equity markets have been caught between an inflationary shock caused by energy prices and a secular bull market in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Despite the war, the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 have reached record highs so far this year, driven by a strong “AI semis boom”.
Several rounds of talks, no deal
Twice now, war has broken out in the middle of negotiations – first in June 2025, and again on February 28, 2026, when the US and Israel struck Iran while talks were still under way.
Ceasefire takes effect (April 8)
The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. The deal was intended to pause fighting and reopen diplomatic negotiations, while Iran agreed to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Within hours, Israel launched more than 100 air strikes across Lebanon, killing more than 250 people.
Talks in Islamabad (April 11–12)
The first serious rounds of negotiations to end the war took place in Pakistan between April 11–12.
Iran and the US met in Islamabad for talks that ultimately collapsed over the nuclear question – Trump said that “most points were agreed to, but the only point that mattered, nuclear, was not.”
Iran rejected the US position and issued a counter-proposal, which Trump later dismissed as “garbage”, warning the ceasefire was on “life support”. The US promptly announced a naval blockade on Iranian shipping.
Lack of trust in post-ceasefire negotiations
Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, explained how an end to the war is possibly near, but it’s still open to interpretation depending on who leaves room.
“A narrower agreement that’s detailed is going to be much harder to reach,” Rahman told Al Jazeera.
“He [Trump] relies on non-professionals to negotiate on major issues, and it’s not producing anything. He wants to write 10 points, agree on 10 points on the back of a napkin, not negotiate a hammered-out detailed agreement that’s going to hold over time”.
“I think the Iranians are very conscious of that. They don’t trust the United States, they don’t trust Trump to comply with any agreement that he signs in the future,” says Rahman.
President Trump’s approval rating stands at 40.3 percent in the RealClearPolitics polling average as of June 2, while 57 percent of Americans disapprove of his job performance, marking a net difference of 16.7 points. It signals a notable slide from before the US-Israeli strikes on Iran.
