New damaging revelations about the dire state of the British submarine force will loom large when Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles sit down for the latest talks with their counterparts in the United Kingdom.
On Wednesday night Australian time, the Australian and British ministers are scheduled to meet for the 16th year of Australia-United Kingdom Ministerial Consultations, known as AUKMIN.
Australia’s ambitious plans to acquire nuclear-powered submarines will again dominate the discussions between the two AUKUS partners, as the Albanese government continues to face questions over its handling of the $368 billion project.
Under AUKUS, Australia is hoping to first acquire Virginia-class submarines from the United States in the 2030s, before a new fleet developed together with the UK, known as SSN-AUKUS, is delivered into service the following decade.
But ahead of the AUKMIN talks the British press has revealed an “unprecedented simultaneous unavailability of all five operational Royal Navy Astute-class nuclear attack submarines” just as concerns grow about the threat posed by Russia in the region.
According to UK’s Mail on Sunday, a British naval source claimed that “a lack of investment for decades in providing the back-up infrastructure to keep them (submarines) safe” had contributed to the crisis.
The startling revelations come just weeks after a Labour-chaired House of Commons defence committee into AUKUS detailed “shortfalls or delays in funding” which it warned could threaten to delay the delivery of the new SSN-AUKUS fleet with Australia.
It’s an alarming predicament for Australia to find itself in, given how much this country is dependent on the UK to improve its industrial base to eventually be able to deliver the SSN-AUKUS boats in the 2040s.
Earlier this year, the UK’s only available Astute-class boat had to abruptly cut short a deployment to Western Australia to head to the Middle East.
Ahead of the AUKMIN talks in the UK, Australia’s Defence Minister is remaining upbeat.
“In complex and uncertain times, the United Kingdom remains a critical partner for Australia and we continue to strengthen and modernise our partnership including through the AUKUS partnership,” Mr Marles said in a statement.
Only two weeks ago, Mr Marles also revealed Australia would now receive three used Virginia-class submarines from the United States instead of a new boat and two second-hand ones, arguing it would improve simplicity and be significantly cheaper.
In Australia, furious debate is continuing over the merits of operating three older Block IV “in-service” Virginia-class submarines, instead of getting access to at least one of the new Block VII boats, capable of carrying far more Tomahawk missiles.
On Wednesday, former defence secretary Dennis Richardson dismissed the recent claims about Australia being dudded by its AUKUS partner, saying it was “irrelevant” whether this country received new or used Virginia-class submarines.
“One of the greatest beat-ups I’ve ever seen in my life has been the tut-tutting about us acquiring three in-service Virginias as opposed to one that’s new, and two in-service,” he was quoted as telling a Morgan Stanley summit in Sydney.
“If we get three in-service Virginia-class submarines, we will have greater submarine capability than what we currently do with the Collins.”
Richardson is correct to argue the Virginia-class boats will provide incredible capability, but there are no guarantees that Australia will receive them on time, if at all, if a future US President believes the US Navy cannot afford to hand over the valuable technology.
Last month’s announcement also confirmed that it’s the US calling the shots on AUKUS, not its junior partner Australia, which is now facing the real prospect of a capability gap once the Collins-class subs are retired.
