Canada is set to host leaders from the world’s largest economies for the annual G7 summit beginning Sunday, and the stakes could not be higher.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s multi-front trade war has countries scrambling to get their tariffs lowered. Ceasefires have failed to stick in Gaza and Ukraine. Allies are collectively focused on boosting their defences to counter China, Russia and other threat actors. And the rise of artificial intelligence has opened up opportunities and risks on multiple fronts.
For Prime Minister Mark Carney, it will mark his most high-profile stage yet as he seeks to both normalize relations with Trump and reposition Canada as an important ally.
Here’s what to expect over the course of the summit.
Avoiding past discord, with U.S. deal possible
The last time Canada hosted the G7 leader’s summit was in 2018, and it quickly saw tensions flare.
Trump’s clashes with then-prime minister Justin Trudeau and other leaders over trade led to the U.S. not endorsing the official G7 communique, and France’s foreign minister dubbed the summit the “G6 plus one.”
A repeat of that spectacle would be a “nightmare scenario” for both Canada and the alliance, Allen Sens, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia, said in an email.
Since returning to office this year, Trump has only doubled down on actions that fuelled the discord at that earlier summit: imposing sweeping tariffs on allies, reversing or reducing climate change action, and reopening dialogue with Russia.
Yet the scale of Trump’s trade wars this time means leaders will likely be clamouring for their own deals on tariffs and other issues beyond the official G7 communique — including Canada.
The summit will mark the first time Carney and Trump will be face-to-face since their White House meeting in May.
Pete Hoekstra, the U.S. ambassador to Canada, said Wednesday the two leaders see the gathering as an “inflection point” in their direct negotiations toward a potential new deal.
“They’re both going to be at the same place, they’re both going to be in Canada, and there’d be lots of questions if there isn’t something that is announced,” he said at an event in Ottawa.
“Until it happens, it’s still a possibility.”
What else will be discussed?
Carney last week announced what he said were Canada’s priorities for discussions at the G7 summit, all of which are aimed at “building stronger economies.”
The Prime Minister’s Office said Ottawa’s top priority will be strengthening global peace and security, which includes countering foreign interference and transnational crime, as well as improving responses to wildfires.
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Canada will focus on spurring economic growth by improving energy security, fortifying supply chains for critical minerals and accelerating the use of artificial intelligence.
Lastly, Canada will discuss creating jobs by securing partnerships to open new markets and generate large infrastructure investments.
G7 finance ministers and central bank governors who gathered in Banff last month ahead of the leaders’ summit agreed to cooperate on pursuing economic growth, ensuring price stability and certainty, tackling financial crime, and supporting Ukraine.
“I would consider any communique that contains any substantive collective agreements on major issues to be a triumph, with a bland document the most likely outcome,” Sens told Global News.
David Perry, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, told Global News that Trump’s influence will likely mean past issues of agreement — including shared initiatives on the environment and “equity, diversity, and inclusion” — will either be less prominent or reduced altogether.
Yet he still believes agreements can be struck among the allies on issues of shared importance that go beyond the tensions Trump’s tariffs have caused — particularly on energy security and artificial intelligence.
The PMO said discussions will also include securing peace in Ukraine and other global conflicts, as well as “a forward-looking agenda that engages partners beyond the G7.”
Other world leaders whose countries are not part of the G7 but who will attend the summit are the heads of Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, Australia, South Africa and Ukraine.
The attendance of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will mark the first time North American leaders will be together since Trump’s trade wars threatened the Canada-United States-Mexico agreement on free trade (CUSMA) that’s up for review next year.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he will ensure talks at the summit and other high-level gatherings in the weeks ahead don’t lead to “hollow” agreements on the war in his country.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will also attend at Carney’s invitation, a move that has attracted criticism from diaspora groups in Canada — including members of Carney’s Liberal caucus.
Modi’s government has been accused of being involved in violence and intimidation against Sikh activists and politicians in Canada, including the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia in 2023.
Carney’s government also invited Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman to the summit, Global News has learned, but the Saudi leader has not yet publicly accepted the invitation.
NDP foreign affairs critic Heather McPherson accused the government of turning the summit into a “showcase of tyrants” with the invitations of bin Salman and Modi during question period on Tuesday.
Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand responded that the G7 is “a critical forum for global leaders to have productive and frank discussions.”
Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, said Trump’s election and the growing threat environment requires a “different approach” to diplomatic relations, which is on display under Carney.
The invitation to Modi was particularly necessary, she said, given the size of India’s economy and strategic importance. She added that restoring the relationship with India could lead to further cooperation on the issue of transnational violence and foreign interference.
“I think we need to recognize that in today’s more dangerous world, we need to be able to engage and have high-level talks with counties with whom we have serious disagreements,” she told Global News.
“Diplomacy is not a favour to our friends — it’s a tool to advance our interests and protect our values.”
Why Canada’s leadership matters
Perry said Canada will have its work cut out in chairing the G7, but agreed the timing was good that the responsibility came up this year, with Trump’s trade war still in its early stages.
“You do get to have a role in shaping things, and you do get to find yourself at a table that you arranged, literally, for a discussion that you helped set the agenda of, with the leaders of … most of the major economies in the world, including the president of the United States,” he said.
“It’s a pretty unique role and opportunity for Canada.”
He suggested the summit will also be a pivotal test for Carney as prime minister — not just in the relationship with Trump, but with the other leaders at that table.
“If the Prime Minister of Canada can’t make good use of time with six world leaders and an opportunity of Canadian creation, he probably should be considering other lines of work,” he said.
