The Liberals have widened their lead over the Conservatives to double digits among voters as the federal election campaign enters its third week, a new poll shows.
The Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News and released Sunday shows 46 per cent of Canadians surveyed would cast their ballots for the Liberals, up two points from last week.
The Conservatives, by contrast, fell four points to 34 per cent support among polled voters.
“This level of national support firmly places the Liberals in majority-government territory if the election were held today,” Ipsos said.
Ten per cent of Canadians in the poll chose the New Democratic Party, three per cent chose the Green Party, and the Bloc Quebecois’ 26 per cent support in Quebec translated to six per cent nationally. All three parties went up one point from last week.
Seven per cent of voters remain undecided about which party they will vote for, the poll suggests.
The 12-point difference between the Liberals and Conservatives is twice the size of the gap shown in Ipsos polling during the first week of the campaign.
It also continues the Liberals’ surge from years of double-digit polling deficits to the Conservatives under former prime minister Justin Trudeau.
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Liberal Leader Mark Carney was forced to suspend his campaign twice last week to respond to new tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Carney held several meetings with his cabinet and Canadian premiers and announced new counter-measures in his caretaker capacity as prime minister.
He also spoke with Trump for the first time on March 28, leading to a softer tone from the U.S. president. Canada also saw no new tariffs when Trump announced his sweeping “Liberation Day” tariff policy on Wednesday.
Sunday’s Ipsos poll found 45 per cent of voters see Carney as the best choice for prime minister, up one point from last week, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s support has fallen by one point to 32 per cent.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh saw the biggest boost in support, jumping four points to 12 per cent. Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet also saw a boost of two points to five per cent, while Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault held steady at three per cent.
The new poll suggests Canadians are no longer unsure about whether or not the Liberals should get a fourth term in government, compared to four per cent who were undecided last week.
Forty-seven per cent of those surveyed said the Liberals deserve re-election, while 53 per cent said it’s time for a new party to take over.
Ipsos also found 53 per cent of voters say they are “absolutely” certain of the party they will support on Election Day, while 16 per cent said their vote choice has changed from what it would have been just four weeks ago.
More than two-thirds of Canadians surveyed — 69 per cent — said they are hopeful for a majority government “so that we don’t have to have another election for awhile,” Ipsos said. Close to 90 per cent agreed this election is “critical” for Canada’s future.
Trump’s tariffs and threats on Canadian sovereignty have dominated the election campaign, with all parties pledging to strengthen and diversify the Canadian economy away from the U.S.
Polling from Ipsos last week found Canada’s relationship with the U.S. was identified as the second most important issue for voters in the election, behind affordability and the cost of living.
That poll found voters overwhelmingly see the Liberals as best party to handle U.S. relations, beating the Conservatives on the issue by 40 points.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 1st and 3rd, 2025, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n=1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
© 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
