Panitan said the Thai government has struggled to respond this time, due to recent years of turbulence in domestic politics, changes in leadership and turmoil within military structures in Thailand. Strategists in Phnom Penh have seized the moment, he said.
“I think that’s one thing that the Cambodian leaders sensed weeks ago, months ago. That there would be no consensus on how to respond, giving Cambodia more time to move more forward before they retreated,” added Panitan, citing the failure of the Thai government to call an emergency meeting of the National Security Council in the wake of the shooting as an example.
In Thai circles of leadership, Panitan said, there were clear signs of the ruling Pheu Thai party’s reluctance to lean too heavily on the country’s security apparatus, due to some of the fractious relations that have long stood.
Dulyapak said Paetongtarn, a relatively inexperienced politician, now faces challenges in terms of leadership and decisiveness, especially in managing foreign relations with Cambodia.
“There’s also a clear lack of unity between her civilian government and the military,” he said.
The interplay between the government and military will be essential to observe, he said, especially to see how responsibility for this issue is divided.
For Hun Manet, less than two years into his prime ministership, a bold border strategy is likely to help him gain political support domestically, Dulyapak said.
But he will have to juggle nationalistic endeavours with economic pragmatism and tread carefully to ensure against Thai actions to cut off electricity, water, or phone signals to negatively affect Cambodian people.
“Such actions could lead to significant hardship for the Cambodian population. This is a serious challenge, as it risks economic strain and public dissatisfaction,” he said.
On Thursday, Hun Manet announced that the country would stop buying internet bandwidth from Thailand over national security concerns.
Hun Sen meanwhile suggested Cambodia suspend the broadcasting of all Thai television channels and consider halting the trade of all Thai goods altogether. He added that Cambodia should not fear the repatriation of Cambodian workers from Thailand, as it would negatively impact the Thai economy.
