We have the first New York Times/Siena College poll since the election, and almost everyone will probably agree on this much: The findings are not good for President Trump.
You would be hard pressed to find a single “good” number for Mr. Trump in the survey.
His job approval rating is just 42 percent, and voters disapproved of his handling of every issue tested in the survey, including longstanding strengths like immigration and the economy.
Only 43 percent view him favorably, down from 48 percent in the final Times/Siena poll before the election and the lowest since his attempted assassination last July.
[See all the latest Trump approval polls in our polling tracker.]
On question after question, voters say he’s going too far. Sixty-six percent of them say “chaotic” describes Mr. Trump’s second term well; 59 percent say “scary” fits at least somewhat well.
If his numbers aren’t good, just how bad are they?
For as long as he’s been a politician, Mr. Trump’s poll numbers could be subject to interpretation. On one hand, they’ve usually been weak by traditional standards. On the other, they could be seen as a sign of resilience, as many other politicians would have been doomed if they had acted like him. He did win the presidency twice, after all.
This time around, the glass is probably closer to half empty than half full for Mr. Trump. Here are four ways to look at it.
Perspective 1: Compared with other presidents
Imagine that you didn’t know anything about this president or his actions so far. You knew only that this is a president with a 42 percent job approval rating after almost 100 days.
If that’s all you knew, you would have to say this presidency was off to a disastrous start.
For most presidents, the first 100 days are as good as it gets. It’s hard to remember now, but at this time four years ago Joe Biden was still being compared to F.D.R. Even the doomed presidents — think Jimmy Carter’s first term or George W. Bush’s second — still had positive approval ratings at this stage.
It’s not easy to burn this much good will so fast, and it doesn’t usually get any easier from here.
Perspective 2: Compared with January expectations
Bring yourself back to the beginning of the year, when Mr. Trump was basking in victory, when there was talk of a rightward cultural “vibe shift” or even an incipient realignment.
From this perspective, Mr. Trump’s first 100 days would count as a political disappointment — at best.
While he won only narrowly, the election was still a decisive victory for populist conservative politics over an exhausted liberalism. There were countless opportunities for him to push major initiatives with significant public support, on issues like immigration, crime, energy, “woke” or the economy. Back in January, it seemed possible for Mr. Trump to solidify a coalition behind these issues.
Not anymore. Not only has he forfeited whatever political opportunity existed at the beginning of his term, but he has also managed to turn his usual strengths into liabilities. Voters no longer say his policies will help them personally anymore, one of the central reasons for his victory just six months ago.
Immigration is perhaps the most obvious example. Voters still support deporting illegal immigrants, 54-42, according to the poll. In a way, this is what Mr. Trump was elected to do, and he’s been doing it. Yet voters nonetheless disapprove of his handling of immigration because the excesses of his policy have managed to alienate many voters who would otherwise be on his side.
In this respect, the usual optimistic case for Mr. Trump is much weaker than it has been for most of the last eight years. While his numbers have typically been weak, there hasn’t usually been any promise that he could have been anything more. This time, there was a lost opportunity.
Perspective 3: Looking back on almost 100 days
Mr. Trump’s 100-day agenda hasn’t necessarily gone the way some voters expected. He’s launched a trade war, made sweeping claims of executive power, slashed federal programs and started an all-out campaign against the legal, medical and educational establishments.
With this context, the decline in his ratings isn’t especially surprising. Public opinion usually shifts against the party trying to enact change, and Mr. Trump has embarked on a radical political program: Thirty-seven percent of Americans perceive him as trying to tear down the economic and political system, and a majority of voters say the changes are “bad.”
This is where a glass-half-full perspective starts feeling more sensible. Mr. Trump might even take solace in the numbers: Despite all he’s done, his 42 percent approval rating is more or less back to where it’s always been.
But this optimism has limits. Even though Mr. Trump usually seems to emerge out of controversy unscathed, this time he’s clearly taken a hit. There was a political cost. And there isn’t necessarily any reason to assume he’s suffered the full penalty quite yet.
Perspective 4: Looking ahead to the next 1,365 days
If today’s 42 percent approval rating represented the full fallout from Mr. Trump’s actions, perhaps one could say he held up fairly well.
But he is not finished yet; after today, there are 1,365 days remaining in his term. And the major issues dragging his ratings down — like the tariffs or sweeping claims of executive power — aren’t yet in the rearview mirror.
If Mr. Trump is only beginning to feel the political cost of his program, then this poll is full of warning signs. A clear majority of voters say the president has already gone too far — too far toward changing the economic and political system, too far with the tariffs, too far with the spending cuts, too far on immigration enforcement.
In particular, the poll shows two clear areas where he faces additional risks over the next few months.
First, his sweeping claims of executive power. Already, a majority of voters say Mr. Trump is exceeding his powers as president. Just 31 percent of voters approved his handling of the Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia case — his lowest approval rating in the poll — and he would find himself on even weaker footing should he push further. Just 11 percent say he should be able to send U.S. citizens to prison in El Salvador, as he suggested last week. Only 6 percent say he should be able to ignore Supreme Court rulings.
Second, the economy. While 50 percent of voters already think Mr. Trump has made the economy worse, compared with 21 percent who think he has made it better, only 32 percent of voters say he’s responsible for the biggest challenges facing the U.S. economy. If Mr. Trump’s tariffs single-handedly drag the economy into recession, as many economists expect, there appears to be room for his ratings to slip further.
So far, Mr. Trump’s low ratings don’t pose any serious challenge to his presidency. This is probably the single biggest reason for his supporters to remain optimistic.
But if his ratings keep falling into the 30s, there would be real risks. The aura of invincibility that’s helped keep his opposition in check would begin to fade. He could face an emboldened judiciary and greater “resistance” from civil society. Even the slightest cracks in his congressional support could make it hard to enact his agenda. If Mr. Trump stays on his current course, there is a chance that the optimistic case will become much harder to sustain.
