The Liberals continue to lead the Conservatives among voters after the first week of the federal election campaign, a new poll suggests, but the two parties are tied on who will best handle what’s seen as the top issue: affordability and the cost of living.
The latest Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News shows both the Liberals and new party leader Mark Carney are continuing to pick up momentum since the election began last Sunday. The Conservatives have also gained ground, to the detriment of the New Democrats and Bloc Quebecois.
The poll found 44 per cent of decided voters would vote for the Liberals, up two points from polling conducted a week before the election. The Conservatives earned 38 per cent support, also up two points, while the NDP has dropped one point to nine per cent.
The Liberals now hold a six-point lead over the Conservatives in this poll, a drop of one point from the seven-point lead they held in polling on March 18.
The margin of error in the poll is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled.
Twenty-four per cent of Quebec voters said they would cast their ballot for the Bloc Quebecois, which translated to five per cent nationally, down one point from two weeks ago.
The Green Party is seeing two per cent support, while one per cent chose the People’s Party of Canada, the latter down two points. Eight per cent of voters surveyed said they were still undecided.
Carney has meanwhile widened his lead over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre among party leaders seen as the best choice for prime minister, with 44 per cent choosing Carney versus 33 per cent for Poilievre. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s popularity has fallen four points to just eight per cent.
Among voters polled, Carney holds double-digit leads over Poilievre on attributes like being the best leader to stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump, represent Canada on the world stage and manage tough economic times. The Liberal leader is also seen as the potential prime minister with the best temperament and maturity for the job.
Poilievre, on the other hand, “only leads on negative statements,” Ipsos found — including being seen as “having a hidden agenda,” as someone “who will say anything to get elected,” and as “someone who is in over their head.”
On each of those, Poilievre led Carney by between 11 and 18 points.
Trump, U.S. relations seen as a top issue
Sunday’s results mark the third successive poll that has found the Liberals in the lead among federal parties, turning around a years-long polling deficit to the Conservatives under former prime minister Justin Trudeau.
Trudeau’s resignation in January and the election of Carney as his successor in early March have since boosted the Liberals’ fortunes.
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So have the escalating attacks from Trump, who has launched a trade war and repeatedly threatened to make Canada the 51st U.S. state.
Those attacks have made relations with the U.S. a dominant campaign issue, with 30 per cent of voters surveyed by Ipsos saying it’s a top concern — putting it only behind affordability and the cost of living at 36 per cent.
While the Liberals and Conservatives are tied as the party seen as best to handle the affordability issue, the poll suggests voters overwhelmingly see the Liberals as best to handle U.S. relations. The Liberals beat the Conservatives on the issue by 40 points.
The U.S. issue was top among older Canadians aged 55 and over, a typically reliable voting group who have also gravitated towards Carney, according to the poll.
Poilievre and the Conservatives saw their highest favourability in the Prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, while the Liberals and Carney are ahead in the seat-rich provinces of Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, as well as Atlantic Canada.
Despite the Liberals’ change in fortune, the poll suggests voters remain split over whether the party should get a fourth term in government, though the number of those who want change is falling.
Half of those surveyed said it’s time for a new party to take over — down eight points since two weeks ago — while 46 per cent said the Liberals deserve re-election, up by four points.
Voters were also split on their overall opinion of the Liberal government, with half expressing disapproval.
Other top election issues identified in the poll were health care —which was picked by 28 per cent of voters — followed by housing (26 per cent), the economy (23 per cent), taxes (18 per cent), immigration (14 per cent), unemployment and jobs (13 per cent), and interest rates and inflation (13 per cent).
The Liberals were seen as the party best suited to address health care, the economy, and unemployment. Voters saw the Conservatives as best equipped to handle housing, taxes, immigration and inflation.
The election will be held on April 28.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between March 24 and 26, 2025, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n=1,500 eligible voters in Canada aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n=1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. A sample of n=500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
© 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
