CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS
But the 1997 El Nino brought catastrophic impacts, including extreme drought and devastating wildfires in Indonesia that burned through millions of hectares and created regional air pollution.
Authorities there have already identified peatlands at risk, and warned the country could see its lowest rainfall in 30 years.
The warnings come with Asia buckling under the strain of an energy supply crunch and fears over shortages of fertiliser and other industrial and agricultural components which pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has effectively closed the strategic waterway since the United States and Israel launched attacks on the country on Feb 28, disrupting global fuel supplies.
Hotter weather will strain energy grids already experiencing fuel shortages, as populations seek to cool homes and workplaces, warned Haneea Isaad, energy finance specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
“For countries that are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas deliveries and other trade, strained supply will lead to further fuel rationing, demand-side management and a reduction in economic activities … impacting overall GDP growth,” she told AFP.
The droughts that El Nino can bring to parts of the region also pose a threat to countries that are highly dependent on hydropower, said Dinita Setyawati, senior energy analyst for Asia at the Ember thinktank.
“Most ASEAN countries use a lot of hydropower,” she warned, highlighting Mekong countries, Nepal, and parts of Malaysia as particularly vulnerable because of their dependence on the sector.
The risks were laid bare in 2022, when a heatwave in China saw hydropower generation in Sichuan fall over 50 per cent, creating shortages that impacted households and industry alike.
AGRICULTURE RISKS
Hotter, drier conditions will also create fresh risks for agriculture, already under pressure as the ongoing conflict raises the costs of fertiliser and fuel needed for farming equipment.
“If crop prices do not rise enough to offset these higher input and shipping costs, producer margins will be squeezed, raising the likelihood of lower fertiliser application and weaker yields,” warned BMI, a unit of the Fitch Solutions research company.
“This would intensify food price inflation and worsen food insecurity, especially in import-dependent and climate-vulnerable markets.”
For some parts of Asia, an El Nino can bring bouts of intense rain and provoke flooding, which could impact sectors like southern China’s late-season rice harvest, added Isaad.
How climate change affects the emergence and strength of El Ninos is still not well understood.
But research shows climate change itself will bring more frequent intense heatwaves, as well as sudden heavy rainfall that can cause flooding.
So experts said countries across the region should further insulate energy systems against more frequent disruptive weather events by diversifying and greening their grids.
“Solar and wind, coupled with batteries, provide a more resilient infrastructure than a centralised fossil infrastructure,” said Setyawati.
